turf_saas/compare_models.py

#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""
Compare scoring models performance vs actual results
"""
import sqlite3
import sys

DB_PATH = "/home/h3r7/turf_scraper/turf.db"

def get_results(date):
    """Get actual race results"""
    conn = sqlite3.connect(DB_PATH)
    conn.row_factory = sqlite3.Row
    c = conn.cursor()
    
    c.execute("""
        SELECT race_name, horse_name, position
        FROM results
        WHERE date = ?
        ORDER BY race_name, position
    """, (date,))
    
    results = {}
    for row in c.fetchall():
        race = row['race_name']
        if race not in results:
            results[race] = []
        results[race].append({
            'horse': row['horse_name'],
            'position': row['position']
        })
    
    conn.close()
    return results

def get_predictions_v1(date):
    """Get scoring v1 predictions"""
    conn = sqlite3.connect(DB_PATH)
    conn.row_factory = sqlite3.Row
    c = conn.cursor()
    
    c.execute("""
        SELECT race_name, horse_name, score, rang_scoring
        FROM scoring
        WHERE date = ? AND scoring_version = 'v1'
        ORDER BY race_name, rang_scoring
    """, (date,))
    
    results = {}
    for row in c.fetchall():
        race = row['race_name']
        if race not in results:
            results[race] = []
        results[race].append({
            'horse': row['horse_name'],
            'score': row['score'],
            'rank': row['rang_scoring']
        })
    
    conn.close()
    return results

def get_predictions_v2(date):
    """Get scoring v2 predictions"""
    conn = sqlite3.connect(DB_PATH)
    conn.row_factory = sqlite3.Row
    c = conn.cursor()
    
    c.execute("""
        SELECT race_name, horse_name, score, rang_scoring
        FROM scoring
        WHERE date = ? AND scoring_version = 'v2'
        ORDER BY race_name, rang_scoring
    """, (date,))
    
    results = {}
    for row in c.fetchall():
        race = row['race_name']
        if race not in results:
            results[race] = []
        results[race].append({
            'horse': row['horse_name'],
            'score': row['score'],
            'rank': row['rang_scoring']
        })
    
    conn.close()
    return results

def get_canalturf(date):
    """Get CanalTurf predictions"""
    conn = sqlite3.connect(DB_PATH)
    conn.row_factory = sqlite3.Row
    c = conn.cursor()
    
    c.execute("""
        SELECT race_name, horse_name, prediction_rank
        FROM predictions
        WHERE date = ? AND source = 'canalturf_partants'
        ORDER BY race_name, prediction_rank
    """, (date,))
    
    results = {}
    for row in c.fetchall():
        race = row['race_name']
        if race not in results:
            results[race] = []
        results[race].append({
            'horse': row['horse_name'],
            'rank': row['prediction_rank']
        })
    
    conn.close()
    return results

def calculate_hits(predictions, actual, top_n=3):
    """Calculate hits for top N predictions"""
    hits = 0
    for race, actual_horses in actual.items():
        if race not in predictions:
            continue
        
        pred_horses = [h['horse'] for h in predictions[race][:top_n]]
        actual_top = [h['horse'] for h in actual_horses[:top_n]]
        
        for p in pred_horses:
            if p in actual_top:
                hits += 1
    
    return hits

def compare_models(date):
    print(f"\n{'='*70}")
    print(f"COMPARAISON DES MODÈLES - {date}")
    print(f"{'='*70}\n")
    
    # Get data
    actual = get_results(date)
    v1 = get_predictions_v1(date)
    v2 = get_predictions_v2(date)
    canal = get_canalturf(date)
    
    if not actual:
        print("Aucun résultat trouvé pour cette date")
        return
    
    print(f"Courses avec résultats: {len(actual)}")
    
    # Calculate hits for each model
    print(f"\n{'MODÈLE':<20} | {'TOP 1':<8} | {'TOP 3':<8} | {'TOP 5':<8}")
    print("-" * 50)
    
    # Top 1
    v1_hits = calculate_hits(v1, actual, 1)
    v2_hits = calculate_hits(v2, actual, 1)
    canal_hits = calculate_hits(canal, actual, 1)
    total_races = len(actual)
    
    print(f"Scoring V1         | {v1_hits}/{total_races} ({v1_hits*100/total_races:.0f}%) |    -     |    -     ")
    print(f"Scoring V2         | {v2_hits}/{total_races} ({v2_hits*100/total_races:.0f}%) |    -     |    -     ")
    print(f"CanalTurf         | {canal_hits}/{total_races} ({canal_hits*100/total_races:.0f}%) |    -     |    -     ")
    
    # Top 3
    v1_hits = calculate_hits(v1, actual, 3)
    v2_hits = calculate_hits(v2, actual, 3)
    canal_hits = calculate_hits(canal, actual, 3)
    
    print(f"Scoring V1         |    -     | {v1_hits}/{total_races*3} ({v1_hits*100/(total_races*3):.0f}%) |    -     ")
    print(f"Scoring V2         |    -     | {v2_hits}/{total_races*3} ({v2_hits*100/(total_races*3):.0f}%) |    -     ")
    print(f"CanalTurf         |    -     | {canal_hits}/{total_races*3} ({canal_hits*100/(total_races*3):.0f}%) |    -     ")
    
    # Top 5
    v1_hits = calculate_hits(v1, actual, 5)
    v2_hits = calculate_hits(v2, actual, 5)
    canal_hits = calculate_hits(canal, actual, 5)
    
    print(f"Scoring V1         |    -     |    -     | {v1_hits}/{total_races*5} ({v1_hits*100/(total_races*5):.0f}%)")
    print(f"Scoring V2         |    -     |    -     | {v2_hits}/{total_races*5} ({v2_hits*100/(total_races*5):.0f}%)")
    print(f"CanalTurf         |    -     |    -     | {canal_hits}/{total_races*5} ({canal_hits*100/(total_races*5):.0f}%)")
    
    # Detailed per race
    print(f"\n{'='*70}")
    print("DÉTAIL PAR COURSE")
    print(f"{'='*70}")
    
    for race, actual_horses in actual.items():
        print(f"\n🏇 {race}")
        print(f"  Résultat: {' / '.join([h['horse'] for h in actual_horses[:5]])}")
        
        if race in v1:
            print(f"  V1:  {' / '.join([h['horse'] for h in v1[race][:3]])}")
        else:
            print(f"  V1:  Pas de prédictions")
            
        if race in v2:
            print(f"  V2:  {' / '.join([h['horse'] for h in v2[race][:3]])}")
        else:
            print(f"  V2:  Pas de prédictions")
            
        if race in canal:
            print(f"  CT:  {' / '.join([h['horse'] for h in canal[race][:3]])}")
        else:
            print(f"  CT:  Pas de prédictions")

if __name__ == "__main__":
    date = sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else "2026-04-06"
    compare_models(date)