Merge pull request 'Sprint 6-7 — ML Upgrade: Ensemble XGBoost+LightGBM+MLP + Optuna' (#1) from feature/ml-upgrade-ensemble into master

2026-04-25 19:15:15 +02:00
parent c8f1bfd478 6b762068fd
commit f1ef2648b1
13 changed files with 3173 additions and 8 deletions
--- a/.coverage
+++ b/.coverage
--- a/combined_api.py
+++ b/combined_api.py
@@ -3519,7 +3519,6 @@ def brave_search():
        return jsonify({"error": str(e)}), 500


-
@app.route("/turf/api/predictions_analysis", methods=["GET"])
 def api_predictions_analysis():
    """Analyse des predictions vs resultats reels"""
@@ -3533,13 +3532,25 @@ def api_predictions_analysis():
    cursor = conn.cursor()

    stats = {
-        "canalturf": {"total": 0, "top1_pct": 0, "top3_pct": 0, "top5_pct": 0, "ze2_pct": 0},
-        "scoring":   {"total": 0, "top1_pct": 0, "top3_pct": 0, "top5_pct": 0, "ze2_pct": 0},
+        "canalturf": {
+            "total": 0,
+            "top1_pct": 0,
+            "top3_pct": 0,
+            "top5_pct": 0,
+            "ze2_pct": 0,
+        },
+        "scoring": {
+            "total": 0,
+            "top1_pct": 0,
+            "top3_pct": 0,
+            "top5_pct": 0,
+            "ze2_pct": 0,
+        },
    }

    for source in ["canalturf", "scoring"]:
        pred_table = "predictions" if source == "canalturf" else "scoring"
-        pred_col   = "predicted_1" if source == "canalturf" else "horse_number"
+        pred_col = "predicted_1" if source == "canalturf" else "horse_number"
        try:
            cursor.execute(
                f"""
@@ -3566,16 +3577,16 @@ def api_predictions_analysis():
            top1_hit = top3_hit = 0
            total = len(races)
            for race, data in races.items():
-                actual   = set(data["actual"][:3])
-                pred_top1   = data["predicted"][0] if data["predicted"] else None
-                actual_top1 = data["actual"][0]    if data["actual"]    else None
+                actual = set(data["actual"][:3])
+                pred_top1 = data["predicted"][0] if data["predicted"] else None
+                actual_top1 = data["actual"][0] if data["actual"] else None
                if pred_top1 and actual_top1 and pred_top1 == actual_top1:
                    top1_hit += 1
                if len(set(data["predicted"][:3]) & actual) >= 1:
                    top3_hit += 1

            if total > 0:
-                stats[source]["total"]    = total
+                stats[source]["total"] = total
                stats[source]["top1_pct"] = round(top1_hit / total * 100, 1)
                stats[source]["top3_pct"] = round(top3_hit / total * 100, 1)
        except Exception as e:
@@ -3585,5 +3596,219 @@ def api_predictions_analysis():
    return jsonify({"stats": stats, "period": {"start": start_date, "end": end_date}})


+# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# /api/v1/predictions  — Ensemble model endpoint (Sprint 6-7 ML Upgrade)
+# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+_predict_v2 = None
+
+
+def _load_predict_v2():
+    """Lazy import of predict_v2 module (ensemble model)."""
+    global _predict_v2
+    if _predict_v2 is None:
+        try:
+            import importlib.util, sys
+
+            spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(
+                "predict_v2", "/home/h3r7/turf_saas/predict_v2.py"
+            )
+            mod = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec)
+            spec.loader.exec_module(mod)
+            _predict_v2 = mod
+        except Exception as e:
+            import logging
+
+            logging.error(f"[v1/predictions] predict_v2 import failed: {e}")
+    return _predict_v2
+
+
+@app.route("/api/v1/predictions", methods=["GET"])
+@app.route("/turf/api/v1/predictions", methods=["GET"])
+def api_v1_predictions():
+    """
+    Ensemble ML predictions using XGBoost + LightGBM + MLP (Optuna-tuned).
+    Query params:
+      - date: YYYY-MM-DD (default: today / latest available)
+      - reunion: int (default: all)
+      - course: int (default: all)
+    """
+    import time as _time
+
+    t0 = _time.perf_counter()
+
+    mod = _load_predict_v2()
+    if mod is None:
+        # Graceful fallback: redirect to legacy ml_predictions
+        return jsonify(
+            {
+                "error": "Ensemble model not available yet",
+                "fallback": "/api/ml_predictions",
+                "message": "Model is still training. Use /api/ml_predictions for legacy XGBoost predictions.",
+            }
+        ), 503
+
+    ensemble = mod.load_ensemble()
+    if ensemble is None:
+        return jsonify(
+            {
+                "error": "Ensemble model file not found",
+                "model_path": str(mod.ENSEMBLE_PATH),
+                "message": "Run train_ensemble.py to generate the model.",
+                "fallback": "/api/ml_predictions",
+            }
+        ), 503
+
+    date_param = request.args.get("date", None)
+    reunion_param = request.args.get("reunion", None)
+    course_param = request.args.get("course", None)
+
+    conn = sqlite3.connect("/home/h3r7/turf_saas/turf.db")
+    conn.row_factory = sqlite3.Row
+
+    # Determine date to use
+    if date_param:
+        date_used = date_param
+    else:
+        row = conn.execute(
+            "SELECT MAX(date_programme) as d FROM pmu_partants"
+        ).fetchone()
+        date_used = (
+            row["d"] if row and row["d"] else datetime.now().strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
+        )
+
+    # Build query
+    where_clauses = ["p.date_programme = ?"]
+    params = [date_used]
+    if reunion_param:
+        where_clauses.append("p.num_reunion = ?")
+        params.append(int(reunion_param))
+    if course_param:
+        where_clauses.append("p.num_course = ?")
+        params.append(int(course_param))
+
+    query = f"""
+        SELECT p.*, c.distance, c.discipline, c.specialite,
+               c.nb_declares_partants, c.montant_prix, c.penetrometre_intitule,
+               c.libelle as course_libelle, c.libelle_court as hippodrome,
+               c.heure_depart_str, c.parcours
+        FROM pmu_partants p
+        LEFT JOIN pmu_courses c ON p.date_programme = c.date_programme
+            AND p.num_reunion = c.num_reunion AND p.num_course = c.num_course
+        WHERE {" AND ".join(where_clauses)}
+        ORDER BY p.num_reunion, p.num_course, p.num_pmu
+    """
+    rows = conn.execute(query, params).fetchall()
+    conn.close()
+
+    if not rows:
+        return jsonify(
+            {
+                "date": date_used,
+                "model_version": mod.get_model_version(),
+                "predictions": [],
+                "message": f"No partants found for date {date_used}",
+            }
+        )
+
+    # Convert to list of dicts
+    partants = [dict(r) for r in rows]
+
+    # Run ensemble prediction
+    preds = mod.predict_top3(partants, model=ensemble)
+
+    # Group by race
+    races = {}
+    for pred in preds:
+        key = f"R{pred.get('num_reunion', 0)}C{pred.get('num_course', 0)}"
+        if key not in races:
+            # Find race metadata from partants
+            for p in partants:
+                if p.get("num_reunion") == pred.get("num_reunion") and p.get(
+                    "num_course"
+                ) == pred.get("num_course"):
+                    races[key] = {
+                        "reunion": pred.get("num_reunion"),
+                        "course": pred.get("num_course"),
+                        "label": key,
+                        "race_name": p.get("course_libelle", ""),
+                        "hippodrome": p.get("hippodrome", ""),
+                        "heure": p.get("heure_depart_str", ""),
+                        "discipline": p.get("discipline", ""),
+                        "distance": p.get("distance", 0),
+                        "horses": [],
+                    }
+                    break
+        if key in races:
+            races[key]["horses"].append(pred)
+
+    latency_ms = (_time.perf_counter() - t0) * 1000
+
+    return jsonify(
+        {
+            "date": date_used,
+            "model_version": mod.get_model_version(),
+            "latency_ms": round(latency_ms, 1),
+            "total_horses": len(preds),
+            "races": list(races.values()),
+        }
+    )
+
+
+@app.route("/api/v1/model/invalidate-cache", methods=["POST"])
+@app.route("/turf/api/v1/model/invalidate-cache", methods=["POST"])
+def api_v1_invalidate_cache():
+    """Force reload of ensemble model on next prediction call."""
+    mod = _load_predict_v2()
+    if mod:
+        mod.invalidate_model_cache()
+        return jsonify({"status": "ok", "message": "Model cache invalidated"})
+    return jsonify({"status": "error", "message": "predict_v2 module not loaded"}), 500
+
+
+@app.route("/api/v1/model/status", methods=["GET"])
+@app.route("/turf/api/v1/model/status", methods=["GET"])
+def api_v1_model_status():
+    """Return ensemble model status and version."""
+    import os as _os
+    from pathlib import Path as _Path
+
+    ensemble_path = _Path("/home/h3r7/turf_saas/models/ensemble_top3.pkl")
+    benchmark_path = _Path("/home/h3r7/turf_saas/models/benchmark_report.json")
+
+    status = {
+        "ensemble_available": ensemble_path.exists(),
+        "ensemble_path": str(ensemble_path),
+    }
+    if ensemble_path.exists():
+        mtime = _os.path.getmtime(str(ensemble_path))
+        status["last_trained"] = datetime.fromtimestamp(mtime).isoformat()
+
+    if benchmark_path.exists():
+        try:
+            with open(benchmark_path) as f:
+                import json as _json
+
+                report = _json.load(f)
+            status["benchmark"] = {
+                "baseline_precision_at3": report.get("baseline", {}).get(
+                    "precision_at3"
+                ),
+                "ensemble_precision_at3": report.get("ensemble", {}).get(
+                    "precision_at3"
+                ),
+                "delta": report.get("delta_precision_at3"),
+                "deployed": report.get("deploy"),
+                "run_date": report.get("run_date"),
+            }
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+
+    mod = _load_predict_v2()
+    if mod and ensemble_path.exists():
+        status["model_version"] = mod.get_model_version()
+
+    return jsonify(status)
+
+
 if __name__ == "__main__":
    app.run(host="0.0.0.0", port=8790, debug=False)
--- a/models/benchmark_report.json
+++ b/models/benchmark_report.json
@@ -0,0 +1,174 @@
+{
+  "run_date": "2026-04-25T19:09:46.629142",
+  "dataset": {
+    "db_path": "/home/h3r7/turf_saas/turf.db",
+    "total_rows": 10899,
+    "train_rows": 8719,
+    "holdout_rows": 2180,
+    "train_date_range": [
+      "2026-03-31",
+      "2026-04-19"
+    ],
+    "holdout_date_range": [
+      "2026-04-19",
+      "2026-04-24"
+    ]
+  },
+  "baseline": {
+    "model": "XGBoost (baseline)",
+    "precision_at3": 0.5286821705426358,
+    "auc": 0.7254057665061495
+  },
+  "individual_models": {
+    "xgboost": {
+      "model": "xgboost",
+      "auc": 0.7856,
+      "accuracy": 0.6917,
+      "precision": 0.4865,
+      "recall": 0.7229,
+      "precision_at3": 0.5783,
+      "latency_ms_per_row": 0.0112
+    },
+    "lightgbm": {
+      "model": "lightgbm",
+      "auc": 0.7833,
+      "accuracy": 0.6995,
+      "precision": 0.4951,
+      "recall": 0.709,
+      "precision_at3": 0.5736,
+      "latency_ms_per_row": 0.0041
+    },
+    "mlp": {
+      "model": "mlp",
+      "auc": 0.7743,
+      "accuracy": 0.7445,
+      "precision": 0.5743,
+      "recall": 0.5325,
+      "precision_at3": 0.5643,
+      "latency_ms_per_row": 0.0052
+    }
+  },
+  "ensemble": {
+    "model": "ensemble",
+    "auc": 0.784,
+    "accuracy": 0.7147,
+    "precision": 0.5142,
+    "recall": 0.6718,
+    "precision_at3": 0.5814,
+    "latency_ms_per_row": 0.0208
+  },
+  "delta_precision_at3": 0.0527,
+  "deploy": true,
+  "optuna": {
+    "n_trials": 100,
+    "xgboost_best_params": {
+      "n_estimators": 141,
+      "max_depth": 5,
+      "learning_rate": 0.016298172447266404,
+      "subsample": 0.7660470794373848,
+      "colsample_bytree": 0.471124415020467,
+      "min_child_weight": 14,
+      "reg_alpha": 1.9364166463791586,
+      "reg_lambda": 6.018030083488602,
+      "gamma": 4.614943551368141
+    },
+    "lightgbm_best_params": {
+      "n_estimators": 186,
+      "max_depth": 4,
+      "learning_rate": 0.012915117465216954,
+      "num_leaves": 141,
+      "subsample": 0.6193119116922561,
+      "colsample_bytree": 0.539310022549326,
+      "min_child_samples": 9,
+      "reg_alpha": 0.6864583098112754,
+      "reg_lambda": 0.0549259590914184
+    }
+  },
+  "features": {
+    "total": 43,
+    "selected_by_shap": 31,
+    "feature_list": [
+      "age",
+      "sexe_enc",
+      "nombre_courses",
+      "nombre_victoires",
+      "nombre_places",
+      "tx_victoire",
+      "tx_place",
+      "forme_recente",
+      "tendance_num",
+      "gains_annee_en_cours",
+      "cote_direct",
+      "cote_reference",
+      "distance",
+      "nb_partants",
+      "discipline_enc",
+      "specialite_enc",
+      "oeilleres_enc",
+      "tendance_cote_enc",
+      "penetrometre_intitule_enc",
+      "form_1",
+      "form_2",
+      "form_3",
+      "form_4",
+      "form_5",
+      "form_weighted",
+      "form_avg",
+      "form_best",
+      "form_worst",
+      "win_ratio",
+      "place_ratio",
+      "implied_prob",
+      "win_rate_adj",
+      "place_rate_adj",
+      "earnings_per_race",
+      "cote_diff",
+      "cote_ratio",
+      "rang_cote",
+      "ratio_cote_field",
+      "distance_cat",
+      "age_win_interact",
+      "is_favorite",
+      "poids",
+      "prize_norm"
+    ],
+    "shap_selected": [
+      "rang_cote",
+      "implied_prob",
+      "cote_direct",
+      "ratio_cote_field",
+      "nb_partants",
+      "cote_diff",
+      "cote_ratio",
+      "specialite_enc",
+      "earnings_per_race",
+      "nombre_courses",
+      "cote_reference",
+      "distance",
+      "discipline_enc",
+      "is_favorite",
+      "prize_norm",
+      "win_ratio",
+      "place_rate_adj",
+      "gains_annee_en_cours",
+      "poids",
+      "tx_place",
+      "penetrometre_intitule_enc",
+      "age_win_interact",
+      "nombre_places",
+      "tendance_num",
+      "age",
+      "form_avg",
+      "form_weighted",
+      "place_ratio",
+      "form_3",
+      "oeilleres_enc",
+      "form_5"
+    ]
+  },
+  "ensemble_weights": {
+    "xgboost": 0.23161801824035544,
+    "lightgbm": 0.23415467282905,
+    "mlp": 0.21290370528252356
+  }
+}
--- a/models/benchmark_report.md
+++ b/models/benchmark_report.md
@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
+# Benchmark ML Ensemble — Turf Prédictions
+
+**Date:** 2026-04-25  
+**Dataset:** 10,899 partants  
+**Holdout:** 2,180 lignes (2026-04-19 → 2026-04-24)
+
+## Résultats
+
+| Modèle | Precision@3 | AUC | Latence/prédiction |
+|--------|-------------|-----|-------------------|
+| XGBoost (baseline) | 0.5287 | 0.7254 | — |
+| xgboost | 0.5783 | 0.7856 | 0.01 ms |
+| lightgbm | 0.5736 | 0.7833 | 0.00 ms |
+| mlp | 0.5643 | 0.7743 | 0.01 ms |
+| **Ensemble** | **0.5814** | **0.7840** | **0.02 ms** |
+
+## Décision de déploiement
+
+- Delta Precision@3 : **+0.0527** (+5.3%)
+- Seuil requis : **+5%**
+- Résultat : **✅ DEPLOIEMENT RECOMMANDE**
+
+## Optimisation Optuna
+
+- Trials XGBoost : 100
+- Trials LightGBM : 100
+- Pruning : MedianPruner
+
+### Meilleurs hyperparamètres XGBoost
+```json
+{
+  "n_estimators": 141,
+  "max_depth": 5,
+  "learning_rate": 0.016298172447266404,
+  "subsample": 0.7660470794373848,
+  "colsample_bytree": 0.471124415020467,
+  "min_child_weight": 14,
+  "reg_alpha": 1.9364166463791586,
+  "reg_lambda": 6.018030083488602,
+  "gamma": 4.614943551368141
+}
+```
+
+### Meilleurs hyperparamètres LightGBM
+```json
+{
+  "n_estimators": 186,
+  "max_depth": 4,
+  "learning_rate": 0.012915117465216954,
+  "num_leaves": 141,
+  "subsample": 0.6193119116922561,
+  "colsample_bytree": 0.539310022549326,
+  "min_child_samples": 9,
+  "reg_alpha": 0.6864583098112754,
+  "reg_lambda": 0.0549259590914184
+}
+```
+
+## Features
+
+- Total features : 43
+- Retenues par SHAP : 31
+
+## Poids de l'ensemble
+
+- xgboost : 0.2316
+- lightgbm : 0.2342
+- mlp : 0.2129
--- a/predict_v2.py
+++ b/predict_v2.py
@@ -0,0 +1,387 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""
+Ensemble prediction module for /api/v1/predictions.
+
+Loads the trained ensemble model and provides a high-level predict_top3()
+function compatible with the existing combined_api.py interface.
+
+Cache: model is loaded once at import time (or on first call).
+       Invalidation: reload if models/ensemble_top3.pkl mtime changes.
+"""
+
+import logging
+import os
+import pickle
+import re
+import threading
+import time
+from datetime import datetime
+from pathlib import Path
+from typing import Optional
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from sklearn.preprocessing import LabelEncoder
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+MODELS_DIR = Path("/home/h3r7/turf_saas/models")
+ENSEMBLE_PATH = MODELS_DIR / "ensemble_top3.pkl"
+
+# ── Cache ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+_model_cache = {
+    "ensemble": None,
+    "mtime": None,
+    "lock": threading.Lock(),
+}
+
+# ── Feature list (must match train_ensemble.py FEATURE_COLS) ─────────────────
+FEATURE_COLS = [
+    "age",
+    "sexe_enc",
+    "nombre_courses",
+    "nombre_victoires",
+    "nombre_places",
+    "tx_victoire",
+    "tx_place",
+    "forme_recente",
+    "tendance_num",
+    "gains_annee_en_cours",
+    "cote_direct",
+    "cote_reference",
+    "distance",
+    "nb_partants",
+    "discipline_enc",
+    "specialite_enc",
+    "oeilleres_enc",
+    "tendance_cote_enc",
+    "penetrometre_intitule_enc",
+    "form_1",
+    "form_2",
+    "form_3",
+    "form_4",
+    "form_5",
+    "form_weighted",
+    "form_avg",
+    "form_best",
+    "form_worst",
+    "win_ratio",
+    "place_ratio",
+    "implied_prob",
+    "win_rate_adj",
+    "place_rate_adj",
+    "earnings_per_race",
+    "cote_diff",
+    "cote_ratio",
+    "rang_cote",
+    "ratio_cote_field",
+    "distance_cat",
+    "age_win_interact",
+    "is_favorite",
+    "poids",
+    "prize_norm",
+]
+
+
+# ── Encoders (built per-prediction batch for live data) ──────────────────────
+def _fit_encoder(values, default):
+    le = LabelEncoder()
+    unique = list(set(str(v) if v else default for v in values)) + [default]
+    le.fit(unique)
+    return le
+
+
+def _safe_transform(le: LabelEncoder, value, default: str):
+    v = str(value) if value else default
+    if v not in le.classes_:
+        v = default
+    return int(le.transform([v])[0])
+
+
+# ── Model loading with auto-invalidation ─────────────────────────────────────
+def load_ensemble(force: bool = False) -> Optional[object]:
+    """Load ensemble model, reload if file changed."""
+    with _model_cache["lock"]:
+        if not ENSEMBLE_PATH.exists():
+            return None
+        mtime = ENSEMBLE_PATH.stat().st_mtime
+        if force or _model_cache["ensemble"] is None or mtime != _model_cache["mtime"]:
+            try:
+                with open(ENSEMBLE_PATH, "rb") as f:
+                    _model_cache["ensemble"] = pickle.load(f)
+                _model_cache["mtime"] = mtime
+                logger.info(f"[predict_v2] Loaded ensemble model from {ENSEMBLE_PATH}")
+            except Exception as e:
+                logger.error(f"[predict_v2] Failed to load ensemble: {e}")
+                return None
+        return _model_cache["ensemble"]
+
+
+def invalidate_model_cache():
+    """Force reload on next prediction call."""
+    with _model_cache["lock"]:
+        _model_cache["mtime"] = None
+
+
+# ── Feature engineering for live pmu_partants rows ───────────────────────────
+def _parse_musique(musique) -> list:
+    if not musique or pd.isna(str(musique)):
+        return [0, 0, 0, 0, 0]
+    try:
+        clean = re.sub(r"\(\d+\)", "", str(musique))
+        numbers = re.findall(r"\d+", clean)
+        result = [int(n) for n in numbers[:5]]
+        result += [0] * (5 - len(result))
+        return result[:5]
+    except Exception:
+        return [0, 0, 0, 0, 0]
+
+
+def build_feature_df(partants: list) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    """
+    Convert a list of pmu_partants dicts to a feature DataFrame.
+
+    Expected keys (same as pmu_partants columns):
+        date_programme, num_reunion, num_course, num_pmu,
+        age, sexe, musique, nombre_courses, nombre_victoires, nombre_places,
+        gains_annee_en_cours, handicap_poids, oeilleres, cote_direct,
+        cote_reference, tendance_cote, favoris, tx_victoire, tx_place,
+        forme_recente, tendance_forme, indicateur_inedit,
+        distance, discipline, specialite, nb_declares_partants,
+        montant_prix, penetrometre_intitule
+    """
+    if not partants:
+        return pd.DataFrame()
+
+    df = pd.DataFrame(partants)
+
+    # ── Categorical encoders fitted on this batch ─────────────────────────────
+    le_sexe = _fit_encoder(df.get("sexe", ["U"]), "U")
+    le_oeilleres = _fit_encoder(df.get("oeilleres", ["SANS"]), "SANS")
+    le_discipline = _fit_encoder(df.get("discipline", ["UNKNOWN"]), "UNKNOWN")
+    le_specialite = _fit_encoder(df.get("specialite", ["UNKNOWN"]), "UNKNOWN")
+    le_tendance = _fit_encoder(df.get("tendance_cote", ["STABLE"]), "STABLE")
+    le_penet = _fit_encoder(df.get("penetrometre_intitule", ["BON"]), "BON")
+
+    df["sexe_enc"] = df["sexe"].apply(lambda v: _safe_transform(le_sexe, v, "U"))
+    df["oeilleres_enc"] = df["oeilleres"].apply(
+        lambda v: _safe_transform(le_oeilleres, v, "SANS")
+    )
+    df["discipline_enc"] = df.get("discipline", pd.Series(["UNKNOWN"] * len(df))).apply(
+        lambda v: _safe_transform(le_discipline, v, "UNKNOWN")
+    )
+    df["specialite_enc"] = df.get("specialite", pd.Series(["UNKNOWN"] * len(df))).apply(
+        lambda v: _safe_transform(le_specialite, v, "UNKNOWN")
+    )
+    df["tendance_cote_enc"] = df.get(
+        "tendance_cote", pd.Series(["STABLE"] * len(df))
+    ).apply(lambda v: _safe_transform(le_tendance, v, "STABLE"))
+    df["penetrometre_intitule_enc"] = df.get(
+        "penetrometre_intitule", pd.Series(["BON"] * len(df))
+    ).apply(lambda v: _safe_transform(le_penet, v, "BON"))
+
+    # ── Musique ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    music_parsed = df["musique"].apply(_parse_musique)
+    for i in range(5):
+        df[f"form_{i + 1}"] = music_parsed.apply(lambda x: x[i])
+    weights = np.array([0.4, 0.25, 0.15, 0.12, 0.08])
+    df["form_weighted"] = music_parsed.apply(
+        lambda x: sum(w * v for w, v in zip(weights, x))
+    )
+    df["form_avg"] = music_parsed.apply(np.mean)
+    df["form_best"] = music_parsed.apply(min)
+    df["form_worst"] = music_parsed.apply(max)
+
+    # ── Numeric features ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    for col in [
+        "nombre_courses",
+        "nombre_victoires",
+        "nombre_places",
+        "tx_victoire",
+        "tx_place",
+        "forme_recente",
+        "tendance_forme",
+        "gains_annee_en_cours",
+        "cote_direct",
+        "cote_reference",
+        "distance",
+        "handicap_poids",
+        "age",
+        "montant_prix",
+        "nb_declares_partants",
+    ]:
+        if col not in df.columns:
+            df[col] = 0.0
+        df[col] = pd.to_numeric(df[col], errors="coerce").fillna(0)
+
+    df["tendance_num"] = df["tendance_forme"].fillna(0)
+    df["win_ratio"] = df["nombre_victoires"] / df["nombre_courses"].replace(0, 1)
+    df["place_ratio"] = df["nombre_places"] / df["nombre_courses"].replace(0, 1)
+    df["implied_prob"] = 1.0 / df["cote_direct"].replace(0, np.nan)
+    df["win_rate_adj"] = df["tx_victoire"] * np.log1p(df["nombre_courses"])
+    df["place_rate_adj"] = df["tx_place"] * np.log1p(df["nombre_courses"])
+    df["earnings_per_race"] = df["gains_annee_en_cours"] / df["nombre_courses"].replace(
+        0, 1
+    )
+    df["cote_diff"] = (df["cote_direct"] - df["cote_reference"]).fillna(0)
+    df["cote_ratio"] = (
+        df["cote_direct"] / df["cote_reference"].replace(0, np.nan)
+    ).fillna(1)
+
+    # ── Per-race rank features ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    if "num_reunion" in df.columns and "num_course" in df.columns:
+        grp = ["date_programme", "num_reunion", "num_course"]
+        # Some fields may be missing
+        for g in grp:
+            if g not in df.columns:
+                df[g] = 0
+        df["rang_cote"] = df.groupby(grp)["cote_direct"].rank(
+            method="min", na_option="bottom"
+        )
+        race_mean = df.groupby(grp)["cote_direct"].transform("mean")
+        df["ratio_cote_field"] = df["cote_direct"] / race_mean.replace(0, np.nan)
+        df["nb_partants"] = df.groupby(grp)["cote_direct"].transform("count")
+    else:
+        df["rang_cote"] = 1.0
+        df["ratio_cote_field"] = 1.0
+        df["nb_partants"] = df.get("nb_declares_partants", pd.Series([10] * len(df)))
+
+    df["distance_cat"] = pd.cut(
+        df["distance"].fillna(1600),
+        bins=[0, 1400, 1800, 2200, 2600, 10000],
+        labels=[1, 2, 3, 4, 5],
+    ).astype(float)
+    df["age_win_interact"] = df["age"] * df["tx_victoire"]
+    df["is_favorite"] = (
+        df.get("favoris", pd.Series([0] * len(df))).fillna(0).astype(int)
+    )
+    df["poids"] = df["handicap_poids"].fillna(60)
+    df["prize_norm"] = np.log1p(df["montant_prix"].fillna(0))
+
+    return df
+
+
+# ── Main prediction function ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
+def predict_top3(partants: list, model=None) -> list:
+    """
+    Given a list of partant dicts (from pmu_partants), return predictions.
+
+    Returns list of {horse_name, num_pmu, prob_top3, prob_top1_approx, ...}
+    sorted by prob_top3 descending.
+
+    Falls back to empty list if model not available.
+    """
+    t_start = time.perf_counter()
+
+    if model is None:
+        model = load_ensemble()
+    if model is None:
+        logger.warning("[predict_v2] Ensemble model not available — no predictions")
+        return []
+
+    df = build_feature_df(partants)
+    if df.empty:
+        return []
+
+    available = [c for c in FEATURE_COLS if c in df.columns]
+    X = df[available].fillna(0)
+
+    try:
+        proba = model.predict_proba(X)[:, 1]
+    except Exception as e:
+        logger.error(f"[predict_v2] predict_proba failed: {e}")
+        return []
+
+    latency_ms = (time.perf_counter() - t_start) * 1000
+
+    results = []
+    for i, (p, row) in enumerate(zip(proba, partants)):
+        results.append(
+            {
+                "horse_name": row.get("nom", row.get("horse_name", f"H{i}")),
+                "num_pmu": row.get("num_pmu", i + 1),
+                "num_reunion": row.get("num_reunion"),
+                "num_course": row.get("num_course"),
+                "prob_top3": round(float(p) * 100, 1),
+                # approx top1 from top3 score (divide by ~2.5 empirically)
+                "prob_top1": round(float(p) / 2.5 * 100, 1),
+                "ml_score": round(float(p) * 100, 1),
+                "recommendation": "top3"
+                if p >= 0.40
+                else ("watch" if p >= 0.28 else "pass"),
+                "is_value_bet": int(
+                    p >= 0.35 and float(row.get("cote_direct", 0) or 0) > 10
+                ),
+                "model_version": getattr(model, "version", "ensemble_v1"),
+            }
+        )
+
+    results.sort(key=lambda x: x["prob_top3"], reverse=True)
+
+    # Mark top-3 predicted
+    for i, r in enumerate(results[:3]):
+        r["predicted_rank"] = i + 1
+
+    if results:
+        logger.info(
+            f"[predict_v2] {len(results)} horses predicted in {latency_ms:.1f} ms "
+            f"({latency_ms / len(results):.2f} ms/horse)"
+        )
+
+    return results
+
+
+# ── API-compatible wrapper keeping model_version & structure ──────────────────
+def get_model_version() -> str:
+    m = load_ensemble()
+    if m is None:
+        return "ensemble_v1_not_loaded"
+    return getattr(m, "version", "ensemble_v1")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    # Quick self-test
+    import sqlite3
+
+    conn = sqlite3.connect("/home/h3r7/turf_saas/turf.db")
+    rows = conn.execute(
+        """SELECT p.*, c.distance, c.discipline, c.specialite,
+                  c.nb_declares_partants, c.montant_prix, c.penetrometre_intitule
+           FROM pmu_partants p
+           LEFT JOIN pmu_courses c ON p.date_programme=c.date_programme
+                AND p.num_reunion=c.num_reunion AND p.num_course=c.num_course
+           WHERE p.date_programme=(SELECT MAX(date_programme) FROM pmu_partants)
+             AND p.num_reunion=1 AND p.num_course=1
+           LIMIT 20"""
+    ).fetchall()
+    conn.close()
+
+    if not rows:
+        print("No data found for self-test")
+    else:
+        cols = [d[0] for d in conn.description] if hasattr(conn, "description") else []
+        # Fallback column list
+        import sqlite3 as sq3
+
+        conn2 = sq3.connect("/home/h3r7/turf_saas/turf.db")
+        cur = conn2.execute(
+            """SELECT p.*, c.distance, c.discipline, c.specialite,
+                      c.nb_declares_partants, c.montant_prix, c.penetrometre_intitule
+               FROM pmu_partants p
+               LEFT JOIN pmu_courses c ON p.date_programme=c.date_programme
+                    AND p.num_reunion=c.num_reunion AND p.num_course=c.num_course
+               WHERE p.date_programme=(SELECT MAX(date_programme) FROM pmu_partants)
+                 AND p.num_reunion=1 AND p.num_course=1
+               LIMIT 20"""
+        )
+        cols = [d[0] for d in cur.description]
+        rows2 = cur.fetchall()
+        conn2.close()
+
+        partants = [dict(zip(cols, row)) for row in rows2]
+        preds = predict_top3(partants)
+        print(f"Self-test: {len(preds)} predictions")
+        for p in preds[:5]:
+            print(
+                f"  {p['horse_name']:20s}  prob_top3={p['prob_top3']}%  rec={p['recommendation']}"
+            )
--- a/pytest.ini
+++ b/pytest.ini
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+[pytest]
+asyncio_mode = auto
+testpaths = tests
+python_files = test_*.py
+python_classes = Test*
+python_functions = test_*
+addopts = --tb=short -v
+markers =
+    e2e: Tests End-to-End Playwright
+    load: Tests de charge Locust
+    security: Tests de sécurité
+    smoke: Tests rapides de smoke
--- a/rebuild_ensemble.py
+++ b/rebuild_ensemble.py
@@ -0,0 +1,182 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""
+Rebuild ensemble using known best Optuna params (from completed study).
+Skips the 100-trial Optuna search and goes straight to training + pickling.
+"""
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, '/home/h3r7/turf_saas')
+
+from train_ensemble import (
+    load_data, engineer_features, temporal_split, get_features_and_target,
+    evaluate_baseline, train_xgboost, train_lightgbm, train_mlp,
+    shap_feature_selection, compute_ensemble_weights,
+    evaluate_model, compute_precision_at3, TurfEnsemble,
+    MODELS_DIR, DEPLOY_THRESHOLD, _write_markdown_report
+)
+import json, pickle, numpy as np
+from datetime import datetime
+from pathlib import Path
+
+DB_PATH = '/home/h3r7/turf_saas/turf.db'
+
+# Best params from the 100-trial Optuna run
+XGB_BEST = {
+    'n_estimators': 141, 'max_depth': 5,
+    'learning_rate': 0.016298172447266404,
+    'subsample': 0.7660470794373848,
+    'colsample_bytree': 0.471124415020467,
+    'min_child_weight': 14,
+    'reg_alpha': 1.9364166463791586,
+    'reg_lambda': 6.018030083488602,
+    'gamma': 4.614943551368141,
+}
+LGB_BEST = {
+    'n_estimators': 186, 'max_depth': 4,
+    'learning_rate': 0.012915117465216954,
+    'num_leaves': 141,
+    'subsample': 0.6193119116922561,
+    'colsample_bytree': 0.539310022549326,
+    'min_child_samples': 9,
+    'reg_alpha': 0.6864583098112754,
+    'reg_lambda': 0.0549259590914184,
+}
+
+print("=" * 65)
+print("TURF ENSEMBLE REBUILD (using pre-computed Optuna params)")
+print("=" * 65)
+
+print("\n[1/7] Loading data...")
+df = load_data(DB_PATH)
+df = engineer_features(df)
+
+print("\n[2/7] Temporal split...")
+train_df, holdout_df = temporal_split(df)
+X_train, y_train, feat_cols = get_features_and_target(train_df)
+X_holdout, y_holdout, _ = get_features_and_target(holdout_df)
+
+n = len(X_train); n_val = int(n * 0.15)
+X_tr = X_train.iloc[:n-n_val]; y_tr = y_train.iloc[:n-n_val]
+X_val = X_train.iloc[n-n_val:]; y_val = y_train.iloc[n-n_val:]
+
+print("\n[3/7] Evaluating baseline XGBoost...")
+baseline = evaluate_baseline(holdout_df, '/home/h3r7/turf_saas/xgboost_models.pkl')
+print(f"  Baseline P@3={baseline['precision_at3']:.4f}  AUC={baseline['auc']:.4f}")
+
+print("\n[4/7] Training models with best params...")
+print("  XGBoost...")
+xgb_model = train_xgboost(X_tr, y_tr, XGB_BEST)
+print("  LightGBM...")
+lgb_model = train_lightgbm(X_tr, y_tr, LGB_BEST)
+print("  MLP...")
+mlp_model = train_mlp(X_tr.values, y_tr)
+
+print("\n[5/7] SHAP analysis...")
+selected_features, shap_df = shap_feature_selection(xgb_model, X_tr)
+
+print("\n[6/7] Computing ensemble weights...")
+class WrappedMLP:
+    def __init__(self, pipeline, cols):
+        self.pipeline = pipeline
+        self.feature_cols = cols
+    def predict_proba(self, X):
+        import pandas as pd
+        available = [c for c in self.feature_cols if c in X.columns]
+        return self.pipeline.predict_proba(X[available].values)
+
+class WrappedTree:
+    def __init__(self, model, cols):
+        self.model = model
+        self.feature_cols = cols
+    def predict_proba(self, X):
+        available = [c for c in self.feature_cols if c in X.columns]
+        return self.model.predict_proba(X[available])
+
+wrapped_xgb = WrappedTree(xgb_model, feat_cols)
+wrapped_lgb = WrappedTree(lgb_model, feat_cols)
+wrapped_mlp = WrappedMLP(mlp_model, feat_cols)
+model_dict = {'xgboost': wrapped_xgb, 'lightgbm': wrapped_lgb, 'mlp': wrapped_mlp}
+
+weights = compute_ensemble_weights(model_dict, X_val, y_val, feat_cols)
+print("  Weights:", weights)
+
+print("\n[7/7] Evaluating + saving ensemble...")
+ensemble = TurfEnsemble(xgb_model, lgb_model, mlp_model, weights, feat_cols)
+
+results = {}
+for name, wrapped in model_dict.items():
+    res = evaluate_model(wrapped, X_holdout, y_holdout, holdout_df, name)
+    results[name] = res
+    print(f"  {name:12s} P@3={res['precision_at3']:.4f}  AUC={res['auc']:.4f}")
+
+ens_res = evaluate_model(ensemble, X_holdout, y_holdout, holdout_df, "ensemble")
+results["ensemble"] = ens_res
+print(f"  {'ensemble':12s} P@3={ens_res['precision_at3']:.4f}  AUC={ens_res['auc']:.4f}")
+
+delta = ens_res['precision_at3'] - baseline['precision_at3']
+deploy = delta >= DEPLOY_THRESHOLD
+print(f"\n  Delta: {delta:+.4f} ({delta*100:+.1f}%)  Deploy={'YES' if deploy else 'NO'}")
+
+# Save ensemble
+ensemble_path = MODELS_DIR / "ensemble_top3.pkl"
+with open(ensemble_path, "wb") as f:
+    pickle.dump(ensemble, f)
+print(f"\n  ✅ ensemble_top3.pkl saved ({ensemble_path.stat().st_size//1024} KB)")
+
+# Save individual models
+for name, model in [("xgboost_optimized", xgb_model), ("lightgbm", lgb_model)]:
+    path = MODELS_DIR / f"{name}_top3.pkl"
+    with open(path, "wb") as f:
+        pickle.dump({"model": model, "feature_cols": feat_cols}, f)
+    print(f"  ✅ {name}_top3.pkl saved")
+
+mlp_path = MODELS_DIR / "mlp_top3.pkl"
+with open(mlp_path, "wb") as f:
+    pickle.dump({"pipeline": mlp_model, "feature_cols": feat_cols}, f)
+print(f"  ✅ mlp_top3.pkl saved")
+
+# Benchmark report
+report = {
+    "run_date": datetime.now().isoformat(),
+    "dataset": {
+        "db_path": DB_PATH,
+        "total_rows": len(df),
+        "train_rows": len(X_train),
+        "holdout_rows": len(X_holdout),
+        "train_date_range": [str(train_df["date_programme"].min()), str(train_df["date_programme"].max())],
+        "holdout_date_range": [str(holdout_df["date_programme"].min()), str(holdout_df["date_programme"].max())],
+    },
+    "baseline": baseline,
+    "individual_models": {k: v for k, v in results.items() if k != "ensemble"},
+    "ensemble": ens_res,
+    "delta_precision_at3": round(delta, 4),
+    "deploy": deploy,
+    "optuna": {
+        "n_trials": 100,
+        "xgboost_best_params": XGB_BEST,
+        "lightgbm_best_params": LGB_BEST,
+    },
+    "features": {
+        "total": len(feat_cols),
+        "selected_by_shap": len(selected_features),
+        "feature_list": feat_cols,
+        "shap_selected": selected_features,
+    },
+    "ensemble_weights": weights,
+}
+
+report_path = MODELS_DIR / "benchmark_report.json"
+with open(report_path, "w") as f:
+    json.dump(report, f, indent=2)
+print(f"  ✅ benchmark_report.json saved")
+
+md_path = MODELS_DIR / "benchmark_report.md"
+_write_markdown_report(report, md_path)
+print(f"  ✅ benchmark_report.md saved")
+
+print("\n" + "=" * 65)
+print("DONE")
+print(f"  Baseline P@3:  {baseline['precision_at3']:.4f}")
+print(f"  Ensemble P@3:  {ens_res['precision_at3']:.4f}")
+print(f"  Delta:         {delta:+.4f} ({delta*100:+.1f}%)")
+print(f"  Deploy:        {'✅ YES' if deploy else '❌ NO'}")
+print("=" * 65)
--- a/tests/init.py
+++ b/tests/init.py
--- a/tests/beta_monitor.py
+++ b/tests/beta_monitor.py
@@ -0,0 +1,448 @@
+"""
+Beta Monitoring — SaaS Turf Prédictions IA
+Sprint 8 — QA, Beta Fermee, Go/No-Go
+Ticket: HRT-34
+
+Ce module :
+- Collecte les feedbacks beta via l'API in-app
+- Envoie des alertes Telegram en cas d'erreur détectée pendant la beta
+- Génère le rapport beta final (bugs, UX, NPS)
+
+Usage :
+  # Démarrer le monitoring beta
+  python tests/beta_monitor.py --watch --interval 60
+
+  # Générer le rapport beta final
+  python tests/beta_monitor.py --report
+
+  # Test d'envoi Telegram
+  python tests/beta_monitor.py --test-telegram
+"""
+
+import os
+import sys
+import json
+import time
+import sqlite3
+import requests
+import argparse
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta
+from pathlib import Path
+
+# ============================================================
+# Configuration
+# ============================================================
+
+BASE_URL = os.environ.get("APP_URL", "http://localhost:8792")
+TELEGRAM_TOKEN = os.environ.get(
+    "TELEGRAM_TOKEN", "8649773134:AAFqzZVtSHfPPFDadcte1B-1h23nZ8DmdYE"
+)
+TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID = os.environ.get("TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID", "")  # À configurer
+
+BETA_DB_PATH = os.environ.get("BETA_DB_PATH", "/home/h3r7/turf_saas/turf_saas.db")
+REPORTS_DIR = Path("tests/reports")
+REPORTS_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+
+# Seuils d'alerte
+ERROR_RATE_THRESHOLD = 0.01  # 1% d'erreurs → alerte
+LATENCY_P95_THRESHOLD_MS = 500  # p95 > 500ms → alerte
+BETA_MIN_USERS = 10  # Minimum d'utilisateurs beta requis
+NPS_TARGET = 7.0  # NPS cible (sur 10)
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# Alertes Telegram
+# ============================================================
+
+
+def send_telegram(message: str, parse_mode: str = "Markdown") -> bool:
+    """Envoie un message Telegram d'alerte."""
+    if not TELEGRAM_TOKEN or not TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID:
+        print(f"⚠️  Telegram non configuré. Message: {message[:100]}")
+        return False
+
+    try:
+        resp = requests.post(
+            f"https://api.telegram.org/bot{TELEGRAM_TOKEN}/sendMessage",
+            json={
+                "chat_id": TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID,
+                "text": message,
+                "parse_mode": parse_mode,
+            },
+            timeout=10,
+        )
+        if resp.status_code == 200:
+            print(f"✅ Alerte Telegram envoyée")
+            return True
+        else:
+            print(f"❌ Telegram erreur: {resp.status_code} — {resp.text}")
+            return False
+    except Exception as e:
+        print(f"❌ Telegram exception: {e}")
+        return False
+
+
+def alert_error(endpoint: str, status_code: int, message: str):
+    """Alerte Telegram sur erreur critique."""
+    text = (
+        f"🚨 *ALERTE BETA — SaaS Turf IA*\n\n"
+        f"Erreur détectée sur `{endpoint}`\n"
+        f"Status: `{status_code}`\n"
+        f"Message: {message[:200]}\n"
+        f"Heure: {datetime.now().strftime('%H:%M:%S')}\n\n"
+        f"_Ticket: HRT-34_"
+    )
+    send_telegram(text)
+
+
+def alert_performance(p95_ms: float, error_rate: float):
+    """Alerte Telegram sur dégradation de performance."""
+    text = (
+        f"⚠️ *ALERTE PERFORMANCE — SaaS Turf IA*\n\n"
+        f"p95 latence: `{p95_ms:.0f}ms` (seuil: {LATENCY_P95_THRESHOLD_MS}ms)\n"
+        f"Error rate: `{error_rate * 100:.2f}%` (seuil: {ERROR_RATE_THRESHOLD * 100:.1f}%)\n"
+        f"Heure: {datetime.now().strftime('%H:%M:%S')}\n\n"
+        f"_Ticket: HRT-34_"
+    )
+    send_telegram(text)
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# Collecte de métriques
+# ============================================================
+
+
+class BetaMonitor:
+    """Moniteur actif pendant la beta fermée."""
+
+    ENDPOINTS_TO_CHECK = [
+        "/api",
+        "/api/races",
+        "/api/scoring",
+        "/dashboard",
+        "/",
+    ]
+
+    def __init__(self, base_url: str = BASE_URL):
+        self.base_url = base_url.rstrip("/")
+        self.errors: list[dict] = []
+        self.latencies: list[float] = []
+        self.check_count = 0
+
+    def check_endpoint(self, path: str) -> dict:
+        """Vérifie un endpoint et retourne le résultat."""
+        start = time.time()
+        try:
+            resp = requests.get(f"{self.base_url}{path}", timeout=10)
+            latency_ms = (time.time() - start) * 1000
+            return {
+                "path": path,
+                "status": resp.status_code,
+                "latency_ms": latency_ms,
+                "ok": resp.status_code < 500,
+                "timestamp": datetime.now().isoformat(),
+            }
+        except requests.exceptions.ConnectionError as e:
+            return {
+                "path": path,
+                "status": 0,
+                "latency_ms": 0,
+                "ok": False,
+                "error": str(e),
+                "timestamp": datetime.now().isoformat(),
+            }
+        except Exception as e:
+            return {
+                "path": path,
+                "status": 0,
+                "latency_ms": 0,
+                "ok": False,
+                "error": str(e),
+                "timestamp": datetime.now().isoformat(),
+            }
+
+    def run_checks(self) -> dict:
+        """Exécute tous les checks et retourne un résumé."""
+        results = [self.check_endpoint(p) for p in self.ENDPOINTS_TO_CHECK]
+        self.check_count += 1
+
+        failures = [r for r in results if not r["ok"]]
+        latencies = [r["latency_ms"] for r in results if r["latency_ms"] > 0]
+
+        p95 = (
+            sorted(latencies)[int(len(latencies) * 0.95)]
+            if len(latencies) >= 2
+            else (latencies[0] if latencies else 0)
+        )
+        error_rate = len(failures) / len(results) if results else 0
+
+        # Stocker pour rapport
+        self.latencies.extend(latencies)
+        self.errors.extend(failures)
+
+        return {
+            "check_number": self.check_count,
+            "timestamp": datetime.now().isoformat(),
+            "total_checks": len(results),
+            "failures": len(failures),
+            "error_rate": error_rate,
+            "p95_ms": p95,
+            "results": results,
+        }
+
+    def watch(self, interval_seconds: int = 60):
+        """Surveillance continue avec alertes Telegram."""
+        print(f"🔍 Beta monitoring démarré — {self.base_url}")
+        print(f"   Intervalle: {interval_seconds}s")
+        print(f"   Endpoints: {len(self.ENDPOINTS_TO_CHECK)}")
+        print(f"   Ctrl+C pour arrêter\n")
+
+        consecutive_errors = 0
+
+        try:
+            while True:
+                summary = self.run_checks()
+                timestamp = datetime.now().strftime("%H:%M:%S")
+
+                status_icon = "✅" if summary["error_rate"] == 0 else "❌"
+                print(
+                    f"[{timestamp}] {status_icon} "
+                    f"Check #{summary['check_number']} — "
+                    f"p95={summary['p95_ms']:.0f}ms, "
+                    f"errors={summary['failures']}/{summary['total_checks']}"
+                )
+
+                # Alertes
+                if summary["error_rate"] > ERROR_RATE_THRESHOLD:
+                    consecutive_errors += 1
+                    if consecutive_errors >= 2:  # 2 checks consécutifs en erreur
+                        for failure in summary["results"]:
+                            if not failure["ok"]:
+                                alert_error(
+                                    failure["path"],
+                                    failure.get("status", 0),
+                                    failure.get("error", "Non-2xx response"),
+                                )
+                else:
+                    consecutive_errors = 0
+
+                if summary["p95_ms"] > LATENCY_P95_THRESHOLD_MS:
+                    print(f"⚠️  Latence p95 élevée: {summary['p95_ms']:.0f}ms")
+                    if summary["p95_ms"] > LATENCY_P95_THRESHOLD_MS * 2:
+                        alert_performance(summary["p95_ms"], summary["error_rate"])
+
+                # Sauvegarder les résultats
+                log_file = REPORTS_DIR / "beta_monitor_log.jsonl"
+                with open(log_file, "a") as f:
+                    f.write(json.dumps(summary) + "\n")
+
+                time.sleep(interval_seconds)
+
+        except KeyboardInterrupt:
+            print(f"\n⏹️  Monitoring arrêté après {self.check_count} checks")
+            self.generate_report()
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# Rapport beta final
+# ============================================================
+
+
+class BetaReport:
+    """Générateur de rapport beta fermée."""
+
+    def __init__(self, base_url: str = BASE_URL):
+        self.base_url = base_url
+        self.timestamp = datetime.now().strftime("%Y%m%d_%H%M%S")
+
+    def collect_feedback_from_db(self) -> list[dict]:
+        """Collecte les feedbacks depuis la BDD (table beta_feedback si elle existe)."""
+        try:
+            conn = sqlite3.connect(BETA_DB_PATH)
+            c = conn.cursor()
+            c.execute(
+                "SELECT name FROM sqlite_master WHERE type='table' AND name='beta_feedback'"
+            )
+            if not c.fetchone():
+                conn.close()
+                return []
+            c.execute("SELECT * FROM beta_feedback ORDER BY created_at DESC")
+            rows = c.fetchall()
+            conn.close()
+            return [dict(zip([col[0] for col in c.description], row)) for row in rows]
+        except Exception as e:
+            print(f"⚠️  Impossible de lire beta_feedback: {e}")
+            return []
+
+    def collect_monitor_logs(self) -> list[dict]:
+        """Lit les logs du monitoring beta."""
+        log_file = REPORTS_DIR / "beta_monitor_log.jsonl"
+        if not log_file.exists():
+            return []
+        entries = []
+        with open(log_file) as f:
+            for line in f:
+                try:
+                    entries.append(json.loads(line))
+                except Exception:
+                    pass
+        return entries
+
+    def generate(self) -> str:
+        """Génère le rapport complet et le sauvegarde."""
+        feedbacks = self.collect_feedback_from_db()
+        monitor_logs = self.collect_monitor_logs()
+
+        # Calculer NPS depuis les feedbacks
+        nps_scores = [
+            f.get("nps_score") for f in feedbacks if f.get("nps_score") is not None
+        ]
+        avg_nps = sum(nps_scores) / len(nps_scores) if nps_scores else None
+
+        # Statistiques monitoring
+        if monitor_logs:
+            all_latencies = []
+            total_errors = 0
+            total_checks = 0
+            for entry in monitor_logs:
+                all_latencies.extend(
+                    [
+                        r["latency_ms"]
+                        for r in entry.get("results", [])
+                        if r.get("latency_ms", 0) > 0
+                    ]
+                )
+                total_errors += entry.get("failures", 0)
+                total_checks += entry.get("total_checks", 0)
+            avg_latency = (
+                sum(all_latencies) / len(all_latencies) if all_latencies else 0
+            )
+            overall_error_rate = total_errors / total_checks if total_checks > 0 else 0
+        else:
+            avg_latency = 0
+            overall_error_rate = 0
+            total_checks = 0
+
+        # Construire le rapport
+        report = []
+        report.append("=" * 60)
+        report.append("RAPPORT BETA FERMÉE — SaaS Turf Prédictions IA")
+        report.append(f"Généré le : {datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')}")
+        report.append(f"Ticket    : HRT-34")
+        report.append("=" * 60)
+        report.append("")
+        report.append("## 1. PARTICIPANTS BETA")
+        report.append(f"   Feedbacks reçus : {len(feedbacks)}")
+        report.append(
+            f"   NPS moyen       : {avg_nps:.1f}/10"
+            if avg_nps
+            else "   NPS moyen       : (en attente feedbacks)"
+        )
+        report.append(f"   Cible NPS       : ≥ {NPS_TARGET}/10")
+        nps_ok = avg_nps is not None and avg_nps >= NPS_TARGET
+        report.append(
+            f"   Statut NPS      : {'✅ OBJECTIF ATTEINT' if nps_ok else '⏳ En attente' if avg_nps is None else '❌ OBJECTIF NON ATTEINT'}"
+        )
+        report.append("")
+        report.append("## 2. BUGS SIGNALÉS")
+        bugs = [f for f in feedbacks if f.get("type") == "bug"]
+        critical_bugs = [b for b in bugs if b.get("severity") in ("critical", "high")]
+        report.append(f"   Total bugs      : {len(bugs)}")
+        report.append(f"   Critiques/High  : {len(critical_bugs)}")
+        report.append(
+            f"   Statut          : {'✅ 0 bug critique' if len(critical_bugs) == 0 else f'❌ {len(critical_bugs)} bug(s) critique(s)'}"
+        )
+        report.append("")
+        report.append("## 3. PERFORMANCE RÉELLE (monitoring)")
+        report.append(f"   Checks effectués: {total_checks}")
+        report.append(f"   Latence moyenne : {avg_latency:.1f}ms")
+        report.append(f"   Error rate      : {overall_error_rate * 100:.2f}%")
+        report.append(f"   Seuil latence   : {LATENCY_P95_THRESHOLD_MS}ms")
+        perf_ok = (
+            avg_latency < LATENCY_P95_THRESHOLD_MS
+            and overall_error_rate < ERROR_RATE_THRESHOLD
+        )
+        report.append(
+            f"   Statut          : {'✅ OBJECTIF ATTEINT' if perf_ok else '⏳ Données insuffisantes' if total_checks == 0 else '❌ OBJECTIF NON ATTEINT'}"
+        )
+        report.append("")
+        report.append("## 4. FEEDBACKS UX")
+        ux_feedbacks = [f for f in feedbacks if f.get("type") == "ux"]
+        report.append(f"   Retours UX      : {len(ux_feedbacks)}")
+        if ux_feedbacks:
+            for fb in ux_feedbacks[:5]:  # Top 5
+                report.append(f"   - {fb.get('comment', '')[:100]}")
+        report.append("")
+        report.append("## 5. VERDICT BETA FERMÉE")
+        users_ok = len(feedbacks) >= 5  # Au moins 5 feedbacks = 5 users satisfaits
+        verdict = all([users_ok, nps_ok, len(critical_bugs) == 0])
+        report.append(
+            f"   Participants suffisants (≥5)  : {'✅' if users_ok else '❌'}"
+        )
+        report.append(f"   NPS ≥ 7/10                   : {'✅' if nps_ok else '❌'}")
+        report.append(
+            f"   0 bug critique               : {'✅' if len(critical_bugs) == 0 else '❌'}"
+        )
+        report.append("")
+        report.append(
+            f"   VERDICT GLOBAL : {'✅ GO — Beta réussie' if verdict else '❌ NO-GO — Conditions non remplies'}"
+        )
+        report.append("=" * 60)
+
+        report_text = "\n".join(report)
+
+        # Sauvegarder
+        report_file = REPORTS_DIR / f"beta_report_{self.timestamp}.txt"
+        with open(report_file, "w") as f:
+            f.write(report_text)
+
+        print(report_text)
+        print(f"\nRapport sauvegardé : {report_file}")
+
+        return report_text
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# CLI
+# ============================================================
+
+
+def main():
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Beta Monitor — SaaS Turf IA")
+    parser.add_argument("--watch", action="store_true", help="Surveillance continue")
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--interval", type=int, default=60, help="Intervalle en secondes (défaut: 60)"
+    )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--report", action="store_true", help="Générer le rapport beta final"
+    )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--test-telegram", action="store_true", help="Tester l'envoi Telegram"
+    )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--url", default=BASE_URL, help=f"URL de l'app (défaut: {BASE_URL})"
+    )
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+
+    if args.test_telegram:
+        print("Test d'envoi Telegram...")
+        ok = send_telegram(
+            "✅ *Test alerte Beta* — SaaS Turf IA\n_Ceci est un test du système d'alertes QA_\nTicket: HRT-34"
+        )
+        sys.exit(0 if ok else 1)
+
+    if args.report:
+        reporter = BetaReport(args.url)
+        reporter.generate()
+        sys.exit(0)
+
+    if args.watch:
+        monitor = BetaMonitor(args.url)
+        monitor.watch(interval_seconds=args.interval)
+        sys.exit(0)
+
+    parser.print_help()
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()
--- a/tests/conftest.py
+++ b/tests/conftest.py
@@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
+"""
+conftest.py — Configuration pytest globale
+SaaS Turf Prédictions IA — Sprint 8 QA
+Ticket: HRT-34
+"""
+
+import os
+import asyncio
+import pytest
+from pathlib import Path
+from datetime import datetime
+
+# ============================================================
+# Répertoires de sortie
+# ============================================================
+
+REPORTS_DIR = Path("tests/reports")
+SCREENSHOTS_DIR = Path("tests/screenshots")
+
+for d in [REPORTS_DIR, SCREENSHOTS_DIR]:
+    d.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# Variables d'environnement
+# ============================================================
+
+BASE_URL = os.environ.get("APP_URL", "http://localhost:8792")
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# Fixtures globales
+# ============================================================
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(scope="session")
+def base_url():
+    return BASE_URL
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(scope="session")
+def event_loop():
+    """Event loop partagé pour les tests async de la session."""
+    policy = asyncio.get_event_loop_policy()
+    loop = policy.new_event_loop()
+    yield loop
+    loop.close()
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(scope="session")
+def reports_dir():
+    return REPORTS_DIR
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(scope="session")
+def screenshots_dir():
+    return SCREENSHOTS_DIR
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# Hook : screenshot automatique sur échec
+# ============================================================
+
+
+@pytest.hookimpl(tryfirst=True, hookwrapper=True)
+def pytest_runtest_makereport(item, call):
+    """Capture screenshot automatiquement sur tout test E2E en échec."""
+    outcome = yield
+    report = outcome.get_result()
+
+    if report.when == "call" and report.failed:
+        # Récupérer la page Playwright si disponible dans les fixtures
+        page = None
+        for fixture_name in ("page", "context_page"):
+            if fixture_name in item.funcargs:
+                val = item.funcargs[fixture_name]
+                if isinstance(val, tuple):
+                    page = val[0]  # (page, browser_name)
+                else:
+                    page = val
+                break
+
+        if page is not None:
+            timestamp = datetime.now().strftime("%Y%m%d_%H%M%S")
+            test_name = item.name.replace("/", "_").replace(":", "_")
+            screenshot_path = SCREENSHOTS_DIR / f"FAIL_{test_name}_{timestamp}.png"
+            try:
+                # Playwright page.screenshot est synchrone dans les fixtures sync
+                # Pour les fixtures async, on force la capture
+                import asyncio as _asyncio
+
+                if _asyncio.iscoroutinefunction(page.screenshot):
+                    loop = _asyncio.get_event_loop()
+                    loop.run_until_complete(page.screenshot(path=str(screenshot_path)))
+                else:
+                    page.screenshot(path=str(screenshot_path))
+                report.sections.append(
+                    ("Screenshot", f"Sauvegardé : {screenshot_path}")
+                )
+            except Exception as e:
+                report.sections.append(
+                    ("Screenshot Error", f"Impossible de capturer : {e}")
+                )
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# Marqueurs personnalisés
+# ============================================================
+
+
+def pytest_configure(config):
+    config.addinivalue_line("markers", "e2e: Tests End-to-End Playwright")
+    config.addinivalue_line("markers", "load: Tests de charge Locust")
+    config.addinivalue_line("markers", "security: Tests de sécurité")
+    config.addinivalue_line(
+        "markers", "smoke: Tests rapides de smoke (sans infra complète)"
+    )
+    config.addinivalue_line("markers", "beta: Tests spécifiques beta fermée")
+    config.addinivalue_line(
+        "markers", "requires_billing: Nécessite HRT-31 (Billing Stripe)"
+    )
+    config.addinivalue_line(
+        "markers", "requires_infra: Nécessite HRT-33 (infra staging)"
+    )
--- a/tests/test_ml_ensemble.py
+++ b/tests/test_ml_ensemble.py
@@ -0,0 +1,333 @@
+"""
+Tests ML Ensemble — HRT-32 Sprint 6-7
+Tests de régression, benchmark et latence pour le nouveau modèle ensemble.
+
+Usage:
+    pytest tests/test_ml_ensemble.py -v
+    pytest tests/test_ml_ensemble.py -v -m regression
+    pytest tests/test_ml_ensemble.py -v -m latency
+"""
+
+import json
+import os
+import pickle
+import sqlite3
+import time
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+import pytest
+import requests
+
+BASE_URL = os.environ.get("APP_URL", "http://localhost:8790")
+DB_PATH = os.environ.get("DB_PATH", "/home/h3r7/turf_saas/turf.db")
+MODELS_DIR = Path("/home/h3r7/turf_saas/models")
+ENSEMBLE_PATH = MODELS_DIR / "ensemble_top3.pkl"
+BENCHMARK_PATH = MODELS_DIR / "benchmark_report.json"
+
+
+# ─── Fixtures ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(scope="session")
+def ensemble_model():
+    """Load ensemble model (skip tests if not yet trained)."""
+    if not ENSEMBLE_PATH.exists():
+        pytest.skip(
+            f"Ensemble model not found at {ENSEMBLE_PATH}. Run train_ensemble.py first."
+        )
+    with open(ENSEMBLE_PATH, "rb") as f:
+        return pickle.load(f)
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(scope="session")
+def benchmark_report():
+    """Load benchmark report (skip if not generated)."""
+    if not BENCHMARK_PATH.exists():
+        pytest.skip(f"Benchmark report not found at {BENCHMARK_PATH}.")
+    with open(BENCHMARK_PATH) as f:
+        return json.load(f)
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(scope="session")
+def holdout_data():
+    """Load holdout slice (last 20% temporal) for regression tests."""
+    conn = sqlite3.connect(DB_PATH)
+    df = pd.read_sql_query(
+        """
+        SELECT p.*, c.distance, c.discipline, c.specialite,
+               c.nb_declares_partants, c.montant_prix, c.penetrometre_intitule
+        FROM pmu_partants p
+        LEFT JOIN pmu_courses c ON p.date_programme=c.date_programme
+            AND p.num_reunion=c.num_reunion AND p.num_course=c.num_course
+        WHERE p.ordre_arrivee > 0
+        ORDER BY p.date_programme, p.num_reunion, p.num_course, p.num_pmu
+        """,
+        conn,
+    )
+    conn.close()
+    n = len(df)
+    cutoff = int(n * 0.80)
+    return df.iloc[cutoff:].copy()
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(scope="session")
+def predict_v2():
+    """Import predict_v2 module."""
+    import importlib.util
+
+    spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(
+        "predict_v2", "/home/h3r7/turf_saas/predict_v2.py"
+    )
+    mod = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec)
+    spec.loader.exec_module(mod)
+    return mod
+
+
+# ─── Model Existence Tests ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+
+class TestModelFiles:
+    """Verify all expected model files exist."""
+
+    def test_ensemble_model_exists(self):
+        assert ENSEMBLE_PATH.exists(), f"Ensemble model missing: {ENSEMBLE_PATH}"
+
+    def test_benchmark_report_exists(self):
+        assert BENCHMARK_PATH.exists(), f"Benchmark report missing: {BENCHMARK_PATH}"
+
+    def test_models_dir_contains_expected_files(self):
+        expected = ["ensemble_top3.pkl", "benchmark_report.json", "benchmark_report.md"]
+        for fname in expected:
+            assert (MODELS_DIR / fname).exists(), f"Missing: {MODELS_DIR / fname}"
+
+
+# ─── Benchmark Tests ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+
+class TestBenchmark:
+    """Validate benchmark metrics from the training report."""
+
+    @pytest.mark.regression
+    def test_ensemble_beats_baseline_or_meets_threshold(self, benchmark_report):
+        """Ensemble Precision@3 must be >= baseline XGBoost."""
+        baseline = benchmark_report["baseline"]["precision_at3"]
+        ensemble = benchmark_report["ensemble"]["precision_at3"]
+        assert ensemble >= baseline, (
+            f"Ensemble Precision@3 {ensemble:.4f} < baseline {baseline:.4f}"
+        )
+
+    @pytest.mark.regression
+    def test_ensemble_auc_above_random(self, benchmark_report):
+        """Ensemble AUC must be > 0.60 (significantly above random 0.50)."""
+        auc = benchmark_report["ensemble"]["auc"]
+        assert auc > 0.60, f"Ensemble AUC {auc:.4f} <= 0.60"
+
+    @pytest.mark.regression
+    def test_optuna_ran_minimum_trials(self, benchmark_report):
+        """Optuna must have run at least 100 trials per model."""
+        n_trials = benchmark_report["optuna"]["n_trials"]
+        assert n_trials >= 100, f"Only {n_trials} Optuna trials (minimum 100 required)"
+
+    @pytest.mark.regression
+    def test_no_precision_regression(self, benchmark_report):
+        """Ensemble Precision@3 must not be below naive random baseline (~30%)."""
+        ensemble_p3 = benchmark_report["ensemble"]["precision_at3"]
+        assert ensemble_p3 >= 0.30, (
+            f"Precision@3 {ensemble_p3:.4f} is below random baseline (~0.30)"
+        )
+
+    def test_benchmark_has_all_required_models(self, benchmark_report):
+        """Benchmark must include results for all 3 models."""
+        required = {"xgboost", "lightgbm", "mlp"}
+        found = set(benchmark_report.get("individual_models", {}).keys())
+        missing = required - found
+        assert not missing, f"Missing model benchmarks: {missing}"
+
+
+# ─── Regression Tests ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+
+class TestPrecisionRegression:
+    """Holdout regression: ensure precision doesn't degrade."""
+
+    @pytest.mark.regression
+    def test_precision_at3_on_holdout(self, ensemble_model, holdout_data):
+        """Precision@3 on holdout must be above naive baseline."""
+        from predict_v2 import build_feature_df, FEATURE_COLS
+
+        df = holdout_data.copy()
+        df["top3"] = (df["ordre_arrivee"] <= 3).astype(int)
+
+        partants = df.to_dict("records")
+        feature_df = build_feature_df(partants)
+        available = [c for c in FEATURE_COLS if c in feature_df.columns]
+        X = feature_df[available].fillna(0)
+
+        proba = ensemble_model.predict_proba(X)[:, 1]
+
+        # Per-race Precision@3
+        tmp = df[["date_programme", "num_reunion", "num_course"]].copy()
+        tmp["proba"] = proba
+        tmp["actual"] = df["top3"].values
+
+        precisions = []
+        for _, group in tmp.groupby(["date_programme", "num_reunion", "num_course"]):
+            if len(group) >= 3:
+                top3_pred = group.nlargest(3, "proba")
+                precisions.append(top3_pred["actual"].sum() / 3.0)
+
+        p_at3 = float(np.mean(precisions)) if precisions else 0.0
+        print(f"\n  Holdout Precision@3: {p_at3:.4f} over {len(precisions)} races")
+
+        # Must beat random baseline (30%)
+        assert p_at3 >= 0.30, f"Holdout Precision@3 {p_at3:.4f} < 0.30"
+
+    @pytest.mark.regression
+    def test_no_all_zero_predictions(self, ensemble_model, holdout_data):
+        """Ensemble must not predict 0 probability for all horses."""
+        from predict_v2 import build_feature_df, FEATURE_COLS
+
+        partants = holdout_data.head(50).to_dict("records")
+        feature_df = build_feature_df(partants)
+        available = [c for c in FEATURE_COLS if c in feature_df.columns]
+        X = feature_df[available].fillna(0)
+
+        proba = ensemble_model.predict_proba(X)[:, 1]
+        assert proba.max() > 0.01, "All predictions are near 0 — model appears broken"
+        assert proba.std() > 0.01, (
+            "All predictions have identical probability — no discrimination"
+        )
+
+
+# ─── Latency Tests ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+
+class TestPredictionLatency:
+    """Prediction latency must be < 200ms per race."""
+
+    @pytest.mark.latency
+    def test_single_race_latency(self, ensemble_model, holdout_data):
+        """Prediction for a single race (<=20 horses) must be < 200ms."""
+        from predict_v2 import build_feature_df, FEATURE_COLS
+
+        # Take one race
+        first_race = (
+            holdout_data.groupby(["date_programme", "num_reunion", "num_course"])
+            .first()
+            .reset_index()
+            .iloc[0]
+        )
+        mask = (
+            (holdout_data["date_programme"] == first_race["date_programme"])
+            & (holdout_data["num_reunion"] == first_race["num_reunion"])
+            & (holdout_data["num_course"] == first_race["num_course"])
+        )
+        race_df = holdout_data[mask]
+        partants = race_df.to_dict("records")
+
+        # Warm-up
+        feature_df = build_feature_df(partants)
+        available = [c for c in FEATURE_COLS if c in feature_df.columns]
+        X = feature_df[available].fillna(0)
+        ensemble_model.predict_proba(X)
+
+        # Timed run
+        t0 = time.perf_counter()
+        for _ in range(10):
+            ensemble_model.predict_proba(X)
+        elapsed_ms = (time.perf_counter() - t0) / 10 * 1000
+
+        print(f"\n  Single-race latency: {elapsed_ms:.2f} ms ({len(partants)} horses)")
+        assert elapsed_ms < 200, (
+            f"Prediction latency {elapsed_ms:.1f} ms exceeds 200 ms limit"
+        )
+
+    @pytest.mark.latency
+    def test_full_day_latency(self, ensemble_model, holdout_data):
+        """Prediction for a full day (all races) must complete < 5 seconds."""
+        from predict_v2 import build_feature_df, FEATURE_COLS
+
+        # Take one day
+        day = holdout_data["date_programme"].iloc[0]
+        day_df = holdout_data[holdout_data["date_programme"] == day]
+        partants = day_df.to_dict("records")
+
+        feature_df = build_feature_df(partants)
+        available = [c for c in FEATURE_COLS if c in feature_df.columns]
+        X = feature_df[available].fillna(0)
+
+        t0 = time.perf_counter()
+        proba = ensemble_model.predict_proba(X)
+        elapsed_ms = (time.perf_counter() - t0) * 1000
+
+        print(
+            f"\n  Full day latency: {elapsed_ms:.2f} ms ({len(partants)} horses, {day})"
+        )
+        assert elapsed_ms < 5000, (
+            f"Full-day prediction {elapsed_ms:.0f} ms exceeds 5s limit"
+        )
+
+
+# ─── API Endpoint Tests ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+
+class TestV1PredictionsAPI:
+    """Tests for the new /api/v1/predictions endpoint."""
+
+    def _api_available(self):
+        try:
+            requests.get(f"{BASE_URL}/api/v1/model/status", timeout=3)
+            return True
+        except Exception:
+            return False
+
+    @pytest.mark.api
+    def test_model_status_endpoint(self):
+        """GET /api/v1/model/status returns valid JSON."""
+        if not self._api_available():
+            pytest.skip("API server not running")
+        resp = requests.get(f"{BASE_URL}/api/v1/model/status", timeout=10)
+        assert resp.status_code == 200
+        data = resp.json()
+        assert "ensemble_available" in data
+
+    @pytest.mark.api
+    def test_v1_predictions_no_500(self):
+        """GET /api/v1/predictions must not return 5xx."""
+        if not self._api_available():
+            pytest.skip("API server not running")
+        resp = requests.get(f"{BASE_URL}/api/v1/predictions", timeout=30)
+        assert resp.status_code < 500, (
+            f"Server error: {resp.status_code}\n{resp.text[:200]}"
+        )
+
+    @pytest.mark.api
+    def test_v1_predictions_returns_json(self):
+        """GET /api/v1/predictions returns valid JSON with expected keys."""
+        if not self._api_available():
+            pytest.skip("API server not running")
+        resp = requests.get(f"{BASE_URL}/api/v1/predictions", timeout=30)
+        if resp.status_code == 503:
+            pytest.skip("Ensemble model not yet deployed")
+        assert resp.status_code == 200
+        data = resp.json()
+        assert "model_version" in data, "Missing model_version in response"
+        assert "races" in data or "predictions" in data, (
+            "Missing races/predictions in response"
+        )
+
+    @pytest.mark.api
+    def test_v1_predictions_latency(self):
+        """GET /api/v1/predictions must respond in < 3 seconds."""
+        if not self._api_available():
+            pytest.skip("API server not running")
+        resp = requests.get(f"{BASE_URL}/api/v1/predictions", timeout=30)
+        if resp.status_code == 503:
+            pytest.skip("Ensemble model not yet deployed")
+        # Check API-reported latency
+        if resp.status_code == 200:
+            data = resp.json()
+            latency = data.get("latency_ms", 0)
+            assert latency < 3000, f"API latency {latency:.0f} ms > 3000 ms"
--- a/tests/test_smoke.py
+++ b/tests/test_smoke.py
@@ -0,0 +1,205 @@
+"""
+Tests de smoke — SaaS Turf Prédictions IA
+Sprint 8 — QA, Beta Fermee, Go/No-Go
+Ticket: HRT-34
+
+Vérifications rapides sur l'état de l'application :
+- Routes de base accessibles
+- API répond en JSON valide
+- Base de données accessible
+- Pas d'erreurs 5xx sur les routes principales
+
+Ces tests peuvent tourner SANS infra complète (pas besoin de HRT-31/33).
+Exécuter sur l'app actuelle en staging ou localhost.
+"""
+
+import pytest
+import requests
+import os
+import json
+
+BASE_URL = os.environ.get("APP_URL", "http://localhost:8792")
+
+# Routes qui doivent retourner 200 (publiques)
+PUBLIC_ROUTES_200 = [
+    "/",
+    "/dashboard",
+]
+
+# Routes API qui doivent retourner 200 ou 401 (jamais 500)
+API_ROUTES_NO_500 = [
+    "/api",
+    "/api/races",
+    "/api/scoring",
+    "/api/weather",
+    "/api/odds_history",
+]
+
+
+class TestSmoke:
+    """Tests de smoke : l'app répond correctement aux requêtes de base."""
+
+    @pytest.mark.smoke
+    @pytest.mark.parametrize("route", PUBLIC_ROUTES_200)
+    def test_route_publique_accessible(self, route):
+        """Les routes publiques doivent retourner 200."""
+        try:
+            resp = requests.get(f"{BASE_URL}{route}", timeout=10)
+            assert resp.status_code in (200, 304), (
+                f"Route publique inaccessible: {route} → {resp.status_code}"
+            )
+            assert len(resp.content) > 0, f"Réponse vide sur {route}"
+        except requests.exceptions.ConnectionError:
+            pytest.skip(
+                f"App non accessible sur {BASE_URL} — vérifier que le serveur est démarré"
+            )
+
+    @pytest.mark.smoke
+    @pytest.mark.parametrize("route", API_ROUTES_NO_500)
+    def test_api_pas_derreur_serveur(self, route):
+        """Les routes API ne doivent jamais retourner 5xx."""
+        try:
+            resp = requests.get(f"{BASE_URL}{route}", timeout=10)
+            assert resp.status_code < 500, (
+                f"Erreur serveur sur {route}: {resp.status_code}\n{resp.text[:200]}"
+            )
+        except requests.exceptions.ConnectionError:
+            pytest.skip(f"App non accessible sur {BASE_URL}")
+
+    @pytest.mark.smoke
+    def test_api_today_retourne_json(self):
+        """L'endpoint principal /api doit retourner du JSON valide."""
+        try:
+            resp = requests.get(f"{BASE_URL}/api", timeout=10)
+            if resp.status_code == 200:
+                data = resp.json()
+                assert data is not None, "Réponse JSON nulle"
+                assert isinstance(data, (list, dict)), (
+                    f"Type de réponse inattendu: {type(data)}"
+                )
+        except requests.exceptions.ConnectionError:
+            pytest.skip(f"App non accessible sur {BASE_URL}")
+        except json.JSONDecodeError as e:
+            pytest.fail(f"/api ne retourne pas du JSON valide: {e}")
+
+    @pytest.mark.smoke
+    def test_contenu_html_portail_valide(self):
+        """Le portail doit contenir un titre et du contenu significatif."""
+        try:
+            resp = requests.get(f"{BASE_URL}/", timeout=10)
+            if resp.status_code == 200:
+                content = resp.text
+                assert "<html" in content.lower() or "<!doctype" in content.lower(), (
+                    "La page d'accueil ne retourne pas du HTML"
+                )
+                assert len(content) > 500, (
+                    f"Page d'accueil trop courte ({len(content)} chars)"
+                )
+        except requests.exceptions.ConnectionError:
+            pytest.skip(f"App non accessible sur {BASE_URL}")
+
+    @pytest.mark.smoke
+    def test_headers_securite_presents(self):
+        """Les headers de sécurité de base doivent être présents."""
+        try:
+            resp = requests.get(f"{BASE_URL}/", timeout=10)
+            if resp.status_code != 200:
+                return
+
+            # En production (derrière Nginx), ces headers doivent être présents
+            # En dev direct Flask, ils peuvent être absents — on note seulement
+            security_headers = {
+                "X-Content-Type-Options": "nosniff",
+                "X-Frame-Options": None,  # SAMEORIGIN ou DENY
+                "X-XSS-Protection": None,
+            }
+
+            missing = []
+            for header, expected_value in security_headers.items():
+                if header not in resp.headers:
+                    missing.append(header)
+
+            if missing:
+                # Warning seulement — bloquant uniquement en prod derrière Nginx
+                pytest.warns(UserWarning, match=r".*") if False else None
+                print(f"⚠️  Headers sécurité manquants (requis en prod): {missing}")
+
+        except requests.exceptions.ConnectionError:
+            pytest.skip(f"App non accessible sur {BASE_URL}")
+
+    @pytest.mark.smoke
+    def test_api_races_format_reponse(self):
+        """L'endpoint /api/races doit retourner une liste structurée."""
+        try:
+            resp = requests.get(f"{BASE_URL}/api/races", timeout=10)
+            if resp.status_code == 200:
+                data = resp.json()
+                assert isinstance(data, (list, dict)), (
+                    f"Format inattendu pour /api/races: {type(data)}"
+                )
+                if isinstance(data, list) and len(data) > 0:
+                    first = data[0]
+                    # Vérifier la présence de champs clés
+                    expected_fields = ["date", "course", "hippodrome"]
+                    present = [
+                        f
+                        for f in expected_fields
+                        if f in first
+                        or any(k in first for k in [f, f.upper(), f.replace("_", "")])
+                    ]
+                    assert len(present) > 0, (
+                        f"Champs attendus absents de /api/races. Champs présents: {list(first.keys())}"
+                    )
+        except requests.exceptions.ConnectionError:
+            pytest.skip(f"App non accessible sur {BASE_URL}")
+        except json.JSONDecodeError:
+            pytest.fail("/api/races ne retourne pas du JSON valide")
+
+
+class TestSmokeDatabase:
+    """Tests smoke sur la base de données."""
+
+    @pytest.mark.smoke
+    def test_base_donnees_accessible(self):
+        """La base de données SQLite doit être accessible et contenir des données."""
+        import sqlite3
+
+        db_path = "/home/h3r7/turf_saas/turf_saas.db"
+
+        if not __import__("os").path.exists(db_path):
+            pytest.skip(f"Base de données non trouvée: {db_path}")
+
+        conn = sqlite3.connect(db_path)
+        c = conn.cursor()
+
+        # Vérifier que les tables essentielles existent
+        c.execute("SELECT name FROM sqlite_master WHERE type='table'")
+        tables = {row[0] for row in c.fetchall()}
+        conn.close()
+
+        expected_tables = ["predictions", "results"]
+        for table in expected_tables:
+            assert table in tables, (
+                f"Table manquante dans la BDD: {table}. Tables présentes: {tables}"
+            )
+
+    @pytest.mark.smoke
+    def test_donnees_predictions_disponibles(self):
+        """Des prédictions doivent être présentes dans la BDD."""
+        import sqlite3
+
+        db_path = "/home/h3r7/turf_saas/turf_saas.db"
+
+        if not __import__("os").path.exists(db_path):
+            pytest.skip(f"Base de données non trouvée: {db_path}")
+
+        conn = sqlite3.connect(db_path)
+        c = conn.cursor()
+        c.execute("SELECT COUNT(*) FROM predictions")
+        count = c.fetchone()[0]
+        conn.close()
+
+        # Au moins quelques données pour que le SaaS soit utile
+        assert count >= 0, "Table predictions accessible"
+        if count == 0:
+            print("⚠️  Aucune prédiction en base — le scraper doit être lancé")
--- a/train_ensemble.py
+++ b/train_ensemble.py